The science of conjecture : evidence and probability before Pascal / James Franklin.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Machine generated contents note: 1. The Ancient Law of Proof i -- Egypt and Mesopotamia i; The Talmud 3; Roman Law: Proof and -- Presumptions 7; Indian Law io -- 2. The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, -- and Inquisition 12 -- Dark Age Ordeals I2; The Gregorian Revolution I4; The Glossators -- Invent Half-proof 5; Presumptions in Canon Law 20; Grades of -- Evidence and Torture 24; The Postglossators Bartolus and Baldus: -- The Completed Theory 28; The Inquisition 33; Law in the East 37 -- 3. Renaissance Law 40 -- Henry VIII Presumed Wed 40; Tudor Treason Trials 41; Continental -- Law: The Treatises on Presumptions 43; The Witch Inquisitors 47; -- English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man 58 -- 4. The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty 64 -- Penance and Doubts 65; The Doctrine of Probabilism 69; Suarez: -- Negative and Positive Doubt 76; Grotius, Silhon, and the Morality of -- the State 79; Hobbes and the Risk of Attack 8; The Scandal of Lax- -- ism 83; English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way 84; Juan Caramuel -- Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists 88; Pascal's Provincial Letters 94 -- 5 Rhetoric, Logic, Theory o02 -- The Greek Vocabulary of Probability I03; The Sophists Sell the Art -- of Persuasion o4; Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic io9; The Rhetoric to -- Alexander II4; Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian II6; Islamic -- Logic 20o; The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism 21; Probability in -- Ordinary Language 26; Humanist Rhetoric 127; Late Scholastic -- Logics 129 -- 6. Hard Science I3I -- Observation and Theory I32; Aristotle's Not-by-Chance Argument -- '33; Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy 34; The Sim- -- plicity of Theories 138; Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency i40; -- Copernicus 45; Kepler Harmonizes Observations I47; Galileo on the -- Probability of the Coperican Hypothesis I54 -- 7. Soft Science and History 162 -- The Physiognomics 162; Divination and Astrology 164; The Empiric -- School of Medicine on Drug Testing i65; The Talmud and Mai- -- monides on Majorities 172; Vernacular Averaging and Quality Control -- I75; Experimentation in Biology I77; The Authority of Histories 80; -- The Authenticity of Documents I84; Valla and the Donation of Constan- -- tine 187; Cano on the Signs of True Histories 192 -- 8. Philosophy: Action and Induction 195 -- Careades's Mitigated Skepticism 196; The Epicureans on Inference -- from Signs 200; Inductive Skepticism and Avicenna's Reply 202; -- Aquinas on Tendencies 203; Scotus and Ockham on Induction 206; -- Nicholas of Autrecourt 2o0; The Decline of the West 216; Bacon and -- Descartes: Certainty? or Moral Certainty? 27; The Jesuits and Hobbes -- on Induction 222; Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science 224 -- 9. Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature 228 -- The Argument from Design 228; The Church Fathers 230; Inductive -- Skepticism by Revelation 232; John of Salisbury 233; Maimonides on -- Creation 235; Are Laws of Nature Necessary? 237; The Reasonable- -- ness of Christianity 242; Pascal's Wager 249 -- io. Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets 258 -- The Price of Peril 259; Doubtful Claims inJewish Law 261; Olivi on -- Usury and Future Profits 262; Pricing Life Annuities 269; Speculation -- in Public Debt 272; Insurance Rates 273; Renaissance Bets and Specu- -- lation 278; Lots and Lotteries 283; Commerce and the Casuists 285 -- 11. Dice 289 -- Games of Chance in Antiquity 289; The Medieval Manuscript on the -- Interrupted Game 291; Cardano 296; Gamblers and Casuists 300; -- Galileo's Fragment 302; De M6er and Roberval 302; The Fermat- -- Pascal Correspondence 306; Huygens' Reckoning in Games of Chance -- 313; Caramuel 316 -- 12. Conclusion 321 -- Subsymbolic Probability and the Transition to Symbols 324; Kinds of -- Probability and the Stages in Discovering Them 326; Why Not Ear- -- lier? 330; Two Parallel Histories 340; The Genius of the Scholastics -- and the Orbit of Aristotle 343; The Place of Law in the History of Ideas -- 348; Conclusion and Moral 360 -- Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability 362 -- The Port-RoyalLogic. 362; Leibniz's Logic of Probability 363; To the -- Present 365.