A stochastic agricultural price analysis model of the Moroccan agricultural sector [Ressource électronique] / Ahmad Baijou

Doctor of philosophy : Agricultural Economics : Oklahoma State University : 1990

Bibliogr. p. 181-189

The purpose of this study is to show how selected agricultural sector activities can be affected by price policies. The analysis will estimate the effects of selected price policies, and when appropriate, make policy recommendations. Primary considerations will be given to the measurements of the effects of price policy on producer income, consumer expenditures, government revenue and cost, and the net trade balance. Deterministic estimates of the expected impact of policy on these key economic variables as well as estimates of the stochastic range of possible outcomes of g given pricing ^policy on theser ' variables will be made. Specifically, deterministic estimates of the impact of three policy scenarios will be analyzed: a) removal of input subsidies for major cereal crops; b) a free-trade policy; and c) a subsidy/tax policy to achieve selfsufficiency for soft-wheat. Additionally the stochastic aspects of subsidy removal and of free-trade will be analyzed. These specific policy applications were selected because they have relevance to current pricing policy issues in Morocco and because they demonstrate the capability of the model to analyze numerous pricing policy questions. The use of stochastic modelling methods is considered because prices are subject to unintended changes in the domestic and international market as well.