Tunis and Rabat water demand study [Ressource électronique] / Alexander Andrew McPhail

Ph. D. : John Hopkins University : 1992

Bibliogr. p. 123-127

This dissertation describes a study of the water consumption characteristics of the residents of Tunis, Tunisia and Rabat, Morocco. It purpose is to test and assess the accuracy of a model for estimating residential demand for potable water in large and fast-growing cities of the Maghreb. The tested model expands on current econometric techniques for estimating water use by incorporating specific demographic and sociological variables into the demand equation. These variables are ignored, or have been found to be insignificant, in estimating water demand for cities in industrial countries, but in the research they are shown to be essential for accurate predictions of water use for cities in developing countries. The main findings are: (1) In Tunis, the summer marginal price point elasticity was found to be -0.218 and the summer income point elasticity was calculated at 0.135. This compared with Rabat's summer marginal price point elasticity of -0.657 and a summer income point elasticity of 0.581. (2) Tunis winter marginal price point elasticity was unexpectedly found to be significant and positive and the winter income point elasticity was 0.085 for this city. In Rabat, the winter marginal price point elasticity was -0.673 and the winter income point elasticity was 0.336. The marginal price elasticities are determined without including the associated bill difference elasticities. (3) The most important determinant of long term water use was the household's ability to afford water using appliances and fixtures when its house was constructed. (4) Because of the tenancy pattern in these two cities (where households tend to remain in the same house for many years), there is little indication that increased water use follows a rise in family income. (5) In general, the cost of potable water was found to be a very small part of the household budget in Rabat and the vast majority of households in both cities knew very little about water tariffs including when the last rate increase had taken place. (6) Despite the impending water shortage in Tunis, households are doing little to conserve water and most believe that the water system can meet their needs for the next ten years.